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AMDG				Decision Ready Information!								autosoft@aol.com
Commercial & custom multi-user computer software for a variety of applications including performance metrics, statistical analysis, data extraction and merger from multiple large databases, computer simulation and management information systems.  Founded in 1982.
We know Excel! Whenever possible, Excel is the user interface, VBA is the programming language, ODBC connects to the database of your choice.
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Virtual Masters Golf Tournament
The 2015 Masters is in the books, and so is the Virtual Masters Golf Tournament, which answers the question "How would 8 of the all time greats fair against today's golfers?"  The results surprised me in comparison to other years.
2015 Results
Holy cow! Jordan's record performance has huge coattails, dragging the rest of today's leaders to "crush" the all time greats.  This is the first time in the 5 years of the simulation that the all time greats were not in contention.  Knowing the math behind the simulation, unlike other years where the day-to-day standings were like a "lava lamp",  Jordan's staying on top of the Leader board and a few others hanging as close as they could never gave the simulation a chance to compete.
Actual Results									Virtual Results
Place	Player		1	2	3	4	Total		Player		1	2	3	4	Total
1	Jordan Spieth		64	66	70	70	270		Arnie Palmer		70	70	69	71	280
T2	Phil Mickelson		70	68	67	69	274		Tom Watson		71	69	71	70	281
T2	Justin Rose		67	70	67	70	274		Virtual Tiger		72	71	68	70	281
4	Rory McIlroy		71	71	68	66	276		Jack Nicklaus		70	71	71	70	282
5	Hideki Matsuyama		71	70	70	66	277		Gary Player		71	71	70	70	282
T6	Paul Casey		69	68	74	68	279		Nick Faldo		71	71	71	70	283
T6	Ian Poulter		73	72	67	67	279		Virtual Phil		71	71	71	72	285
T6	Dustin Johnson		70	67	73	69	279		Seve Ballesteros		72	71	71	71	285
T9	Hunter Mahan		75	70	68	67	280
T9	Zach Johnson		72	72	68	68	280
T9	Charley Hoffman		67	68	71	74	280
T17	Tiger Woods		73	69	68	73	283
CUT	Tom Watson		71	81			152
	Historical Days With Similar Weather								Historical Days With Dissimilar Weather
	Round 1			Thursday, April 08, 1954			78.65%		Round 1			Thursday, April 07, 1955			12.31%
				Thursday, April 11, 2013			76.95%					Thursday, April 06, 1995			22.52%
				Thursday, April 08, 1999			74.51%					Thursday, April 07, 1988			24.77%
	Round 2			Friday, April 09, 1999			82.93%		Round 2			Friday, April 07, 1995			11.29%
				Friday, April 09, 1965			81.50%					Friday, April 10, 2009			13.89%
				Friday, April 08, 2011			75.59%					Friday, April 04, 1958			17.86%
	Round 3			Saturday, April 07, 2001			78.40%		Round 3			Saturday, April 08, 1989			9.83%
				Saturday, April 13, 2002			77.34%					Saturday, April 06, 1963			20.37%
				Saturday, April 07, 1962			72.40%					Saturday, April 10, 1993			21.46%
	Round 4			Sunday, April 11, 1954			83.08%		Round 4			Monday, April 09, 1973			18.83%
				Sunday, April 14, 1985			78.00%					Sunday, April 13, 2008			22.44%
				Sunday, April 13, 2014			75.54%					Sunday, April 09, 1989			24.83%
How is this done?
Tiger Woods, Phil Mickleson, Jack Nicklaus, Arnold Palmer, Gary Player, Tom Watson, Seve Ballesteros, Nick Faldo.  All multiple Masters winners.  How would they have fared today? We can make a good guess.
The Course is the same
Well, almost.  Augusta National has been modified over the years, but The Masters is played on the same course every year
Masters.com lists the results from every tournament since its inception in 1934.   Dr. Serdakowski wrote a "screen scraping" program to capture all of the scores from every year for the purpose of modeling this year's "Virtual Masters Tournament".
The Weather is different
Weatherunderground.com has the historical record of the weather at Augusta National.  Dr. Serdakowski's screen scraping program recovered the following 11 parameters from each day of competition over 80 years:
Mean Temperature			Dew Point			Wind Speed			Max Gust Speed
Max Temperature			Precipitation			Wind Direction			Visibility
Min Temperature			Sea Level Pressure			Max Wind Speed
The weather for each day of this year's Masters will be compared with the weather on the corresponding day in prior years.  The graph to the left compares Saturdays in 1963, 1964 and 2012.  One can see that the weather in 2012 was similar to the weather in 1964, however the weather in 1963 was dramatically different.
An underlying assumption in Dr. Serdakowski's model is that a golfer's performance relative to the field is influenced by the weather.  For example, some golfers do relatively better to their peers in windy conditions, while others do better (relative to their peers) when it is hot and sunny.
For example, Arnold Palmer played in both the 1963 and 1964 Masters.  In 1963 on Saturday, Arnie shot a 73, which was better than 86% of the field.  In 1964, Arnie shot a 69, which was better than 96% of the field.  Arnie's performance in the 2012 Masters would have been closer to his performance in 1964 than in 1963, because the weather in 1964 was similar to the weather in 2012.  Simple.
The entire career is considered
Jack Nicklaus had a long and storied career, winning tournaments from 1962 to 1986.  Some years were more successful than others.  Dr. Serdakowski developed a weighted average of Jack's career.  For example, Jack's best year in 1972 contributed over 10% to the model.  Jack won 7 tournaments that year including 2 Majors.   In contrast, Jack only won one tournament in 1982, so that year contributed less than 1% to the model.
2014 Results
Bubba wins.  Arnie, the model of consistency, matches his score, but falls in the playoff!  Virtual Tiger was one shot away.
Actual Results									Virtual Results (* Arnie loses to Bubba in playoff)
Place	Player		1	2	3	4	Total		Player		1	2	3	4	Total
1	Bubba Watson		69	68	74	69	280		Arnie Palmer *		70	70	70	70	280
T2	Jonas Blixt		70	71	71	71	283		Virtual Tiger		72	71	68	70	281
T2	Jordan Spieth		71	70	70	72	283		Tom Watson		72	68	71	70	281
4	Miguel Angel Jimenez		71	76	66	71	284		Jack Nicklaus		70	71	71	70	282
T5	Rickie Fowler		71	75	67	73	286		Gary Player		71	71	71	70	283
T5	Matt Kuchar		73	71	68	74	286		Virtual Phil		71	71	71	71	284
7	Lee Westwood		73	71	70	73	287		Nick Faldo		71	71	71	71	284
T8	Bernhard Langer		72	74	73	69	288		Seve Ballesteros		72	71	71	72	286
T8	Rory McIlroy		71	77	71	69	288
T8	Jimmy Walker		70	72	76	70	288
T8	John Senden		72	68	75	73	288
T8	Kevin Stadler		70	73	72	73	288
T8	Thomas Bjorn		73	68	73	74	288
	Historical Days With Similar Weather								Historical Days With Dissimilar Weather
	Round 1			Thursday, April 11, 1985			84.07%		Round 1			Thursday, April 09, 1998			15.40%
				Thursday, April 06, 2000			81.79%					Thursday, April 07, 1955			16.34%
				Thursday, April 07, 2011			81.04%					Thursday, April 08, 2010			20.42%
	Round 2			Friday, April 03, 1959			88.28%		Round 2			Friday, April 05, 1957			19.31%
				Friday, April 07, 2000			84.88%					Friday, April 13, 1979			22.44%
				Friday, April 12, 1985			80.75%					Friday, April 10, 1953			24.86%
	Round 3			Saturday, April 08, 1995			92.10%		Round 3			Saturday, April 08, 1989			18.75%
				Saturday, April 11, 1953			81.26%					Saturday, April 07, 2007			24.04%
				Saturday, April 08, 1978			78.72%					Saturday, April 10, 1993			30.34%
	Round 4			Sunday, April 12, 1964			89.23%		Round 4			Monday, April 09, 1973			23.62%
				Sunday, April 10, 1994			88.78%					Sunday, April 13, 2008			24.59%
				Sunday, April 09, 1995			86.16%					Monday, April 10, 1961			29.20%
2013 Results
2013 was a good year for the Legends, with both Jack and Arnie besting the field, with Jack winning in a one hole playoff.  Tiger performed better than his "Virtual" self, but still fell short of winning.  Phil did not have a good tournament.
Actual Results (x - won in playoff)									Virtual Results (x- won in playoff)
Place	Player		1	2	3	4	Total		Player		1	2	3	4	Total
1	x-Adam Scott		69	72	69	69	279		x-Jack Nicklaus		68	71	69	70	278
2	Angel Cabrera		71	69	69	70	279		Arnie Palmer		68	70	70	70	278
3	Jason Day		70	68	73	70	281		Gary Player		69	70	70	71	280
T4	Marc Leishman		66	73	72	72	283		Tom Watson		72	69	70	70	281
T4	Tiger Woods		70	73	70	70	283		Seve Ballesteros		70	71	70	71	282
T6	Thorbjorn Olesen		78	70	68	68	284		Virtual Phil		71	70	70	71	282
T6	Brandt Snedeker		70	70	69	75	284		Virtual Tiger		72	71	68	71	282
T8	Sergio Garcia		66	76	73	70	285		Nick Faldo		71	71	71	70	283
T8	Matt Kuchar		68	75	69	73	285
T8	Lee Westwood		70	71	73	71	285
2012 Results
In contrast, 2012 had both Bubba and Louis besting the field and all of the Legends who competed that year (a smaller virtual field)
Actual Results (x - won in playoff)									Virtual Results
Place	Player		1	2	3	4	Total		Player		1	2	3	4	Total
1	x-Bubba Watson		69	71	70	68	278		Jack Nicklaus		69	71	70	69	279
2	Louis Oosthuizen		68	72	69	69	278		Arnie Palmer		69	70	70	70	279
T3	Peter Hanson		68	74	65	73	280		Gary Player		69	71	70	71	281
T3	Phil Mickelson		74	68	66	72	280		Seve Ballesteros		71	71	71	71	284
T3	Matt Kuchar		71	70	70	69	280
T6	Lee Westwood		67	73	72	68	280
7	Ian Poulter		72	72	70	69	283
T8	Padraig Harrington		71	73	68	72	284
T8	Justin Rose		72	72	72	68	284
T8	Adam Scott		75	70	73	66	284
2011 Results
Charl Schwartzel's historic finish to the 2011 Masters (which was the most exciting tournament I ever watched) outpaced the field, both current and virtual.
Actual Results									Virtual Results
Place	Player		1	2	3	4	Total		Player		1	2	3	4	Total
1	C Schwartzel		69	71	68	66	274		Arnie Palmer		68	69	68	70	275
T2	J Day		72	64	72	68	276		Jack Nicklaus		68	70	69	69	277
T2	A Scott		72	70	67	67	276		Gary Player		69	70	69	70	278
T4	L Donald		72	68	69	69	278		Seve Ballesteros		70	70	70	71	281
T4	T Woods		71	66	74	67	278
T4	G Ogilvy		69	69	73	67	278
7	A Cabrera		71	70	67	71	279
T8	K J Choi		67	70	71	72	280
T8	B Van Pelt		73	69	68	70	280
10	R Palmer		71	72	69	70	282
AutoSoft Systems | 2 Round Hill Court, East Greenwich, Rhode Island, USA 02818 | 401.885.3631 | Fax: 401.884.5653 | Mobile: 401.996.3631
This web page was last updated at 03/04/2016 08:22 AM and is written in EXCEL!
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